Friday, June 23, 2006

Da Bears!

Wall Street finished lower today, and for the week, as durable good orders came in at a decline of .3%, lower than the .4% rise that analysts were expecting. This marks the second straight month of declines, with last month showing a sharp 4.7% fall due mostly to airplane orders. The decreases in durable goods has traders worried that there is going to be an economic slowdown soon due to the increases in the interest rates by the Fed. Speaking of the Fed, the FOMC meeting is this coming Wednesday and Thursday. We will likely see low volume and very low volatility until the Fed announces their decision on Thursday.

It seems that the only hope for a half-way-decent summer rests squarely on corporate earnings. If they come in strong, traders might get bullish enough to shrug off the rate hikes as the economy shows it can weather the harsh lending environment. On the other side, if earnings come in much weaker than expected, we could see a positive response because the Fed might see that as a sign that they do not need to raise rates anymore. Of course, if the corporate earnings are as bad as they would have to be to get the Feds to stop, I personally don't think we will be going up in the market for any reason.

Big news with the energy sector, Anadarko Petroleum Corp. announced that it intends to acquire two rivals, Kerr-McGee Corp. and Western Gas Resources Inc. for a total of $2.1 billion. Both of the companies being bought jumped over $18 each pre-market when the buy out was announced. Other energy stocks also saw a significant uptick due to speculation about further consolidation in the industry.

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